1M keywords: AI impact on search demand

Search demand is not shrinking—it is shifting. A large-scale study by Fractl and Search Engine Land based on more than one million high-volume keywords shows that roughly 29 percent of volume for terms with at least 10,000 monthly searches is in decline, while nearly as much volume is growing elsewhere. Overall demand remains largely stable because users redistribute searches rather than abandon them. For SEO and GEO teams, this is not a side note but the basis for priorities in keyword strategy, content, and brand authority.

The analysis tests Gartner's 2024 prediction that traditional search engine volume could fall 25 percent by 2026 as consumers increasingly use AI chatbots. Fractl and Search Engine Land evaluated Semrush data for 1,010,848 keywords with at least 10,000 monthly searches each, across 379 brands in eight verticals. They also surveyed 1,004 U.S. consumers about search and purchase behavior. Measurement date: April 2026.

Decline is real but varies sharply by industry

Across the full dataset of 35.4 billion monthly searches, measurable decline stands at 29 percent—four percentage points above Gartner's estimate. Information-heavy industries suffer most: FinTech records the largest loss at minus 37.7 percent, Lifestyle the smallest at minus 15.2 percent. Only Insurance, SaaS, and Lifestyle sit below the 25 percent mark. HealthTech, FinTech, and Wellness exceed it clearly.

The pattern follows whether a chatbot can deliver a complete answer. For drug interactions, deductibles, or fund overviews, volume drops. Where prices must be compared, purchases completed, or specific provider sites visited, demand stays more stable. Transaction-oriented verticals such as SaaS, Lifestyle, Insurance, and Travel grow or remain flat. Information-driven categories lose the most.

Demand moves rather than disappears

40.7 percent of keywords lose more than 15 percent volume year over year, averaging minus 41 percent. At the same time, 20.1 percent of terms grow beyond the same threshold. The 285,489 declining keywords sum to roughly 10.29 billion monthly searches; the 140,835 growing ones to about 10.31 billion. Net change: plus 16.8 million searches per month. Fewer keywords grow than shrink, but each growing term carries more volume—demand is relocating.

• Lifestyle leads with a growth-to-decline ratio of 2.6x.
• SaaS follows at 2.5x (48 percent growing vs. 19 percent declining).
• HealthTech sits at 0.4x on the other end and is the most disrupted vertical.

Non-branded queries are most vulnerable

90 percent of tracked search volume is non-branded. HealthTech (99.6 percent) and Wellness (98.5 percent) are most exposed. SaaS (82 percent) and Insurance (73.8 percent) less so—and both are growing overall. What matters is whether AI answers trigger follow-up searches: someone asking about a project management tool often searches for brands next. For "What is a deductible?" the journey ends in the chat window. Categories with complete AI answers need GEO strategies, not just classic SEO.

What consumers actually do

70 percent of respondents use AI more often, but only 17 percent search less via classic search engines. YouTube (68 percent) and Reddit (57 percent) rank as search destinations ahead of Instagram, Facebook, and TikTok. 35 percent have not replaced traditional search with AI for anything yet; how-to content is hit hardest. For purchases, 47 percent start with a search engine, 47 percent with online retailers, only 13 percent with an AI chatbot.

Notably, 18 percent have already bought based on an AI recommendation without separate research. Gen Z and millennials are 2.5 times more likely than baby boomers. 59 percent are likely to visit a brand's website after an AI mention. Brand mentions in AI answers function like rankings; website visits like click-through rates. 46 percent trust classic search more than AI, 20 percent the reverse; 56 percent are skeptical of AI product recommendations.

Outlook and strategic consequences

52 percent believe Google will remain their primary search tool in five years; 20 percent probably or definitely not. The minority is small but relevant. AI convinces mainly through better cross-source summaries (21 percent), faster answers (20 percent), and follow-up questions (19 percent). Many would return to classic search if AI felt unreliable (35 percent).

Gartner's warning was directionally right, but "decline" tells only half the story. AI visibility is a distribution channel: earned media, credible third-party sources, and entity signals help brands appear in chatbot answers. Digital PR and GEO increasingly overlap. Those still optimizing only for queries AI answers better today lose ground. Those building authority become the answer—whether in Google or in chat.

Methodology overview

Keywords were measured across FinTech, HealthTech, Wellness, Travel, Education, Insurance, SaaS, and Lifestyle. Decline meant more than 15 percent loss; growth more than 15 percent gain. Patterns such as "What is X," "Best X for Y," "X vs. Y," and "How to X" were grouped at keyword level. The consumer survey included 52 percent women, 46 percent men, median age 41.